How to Win at Rock Paper Scissors — 5 Statistical Patterns

A result that shows up consistently across several psychology studies: • Men's first throw: Rock 35-40%, Scissors 30-33%, Paper 28-32% • Women's first throw: Scissors 35%, Rock 30%, Paper 33% Men unconsciously throw Rock more often because of the aggressive image of a clenched fist. Women find the motion of extending their fingers more natural, so their Scissors and Paper rates run higher. How to use it: In the first round, throw Paper against a man and Rock against a woman.

According to psychologist Wang Zhijian's 2014 study, people strongly tend to repeat the same shape after a round they won (Win-Stay) and to switch shapes after a round they lost (Lose-Shift). • Repeating the same shape right after a win: about 33% (33% higher than random) • Repeating the same shape right after a loss: about 25% (25% lower than random) How to use it: If your opponent just won, there's a high chance they'll throw the same shape again, so throw the shape that beats it.

A player who loses doesn't just throw something at random — they move in a consistent direction. For example, if they threw Paper and lost to Rock, their next throw tends to be "the shape that would have beaten the shape they just lost to" = Scissors. How to use it: When your opponent loses, there's a high chance their next throw is "the shape that just beat them." Recognize the pattern of pushing one step around the RPS cycle (Scissors → Rock → Paper → Scissors).

When told to "throw randomly," people actually avoid throwing the same shape three or more times in a row. Odds of the same shape three times in a row: with true randomness it's 1/9 = 11%, but real people do it less than 5% of the time. How to use it: If your opponent just threw Scissors twice, there's a very high chance the third throw won't be Scissors — it'll be either Rock or Paper.

The throw after a drawn round is biased too. • Rate of throwing the drawn shape again: about 18% (lower than the random 33%) • Rate of throwing the shape that beats the drawn shape: about 42% How to use it: After a draw, your opponent is unlikely to throw the same shape again, so throw the shape that loses to whatever beats the drawn shape. Example: You both threw Rock for a draw → your opponent is likely to throw Paper next → so you throw Scissors.

To avoid falling for the 5 patterns above yourself, you have to manufacture deliberate randomness. • Use a clock's second hand — 0-3-6-9 seconds = Rock, 1-4-7 = Scissors, 2-5-8 = Paper • A word in your head — the letter count of a word that pops up, mod 3 • Aim for genuine randomness every round Gababo's AI bot learns these very patterns. The surest way to beat the bot is to use an external randomness source like the ones above.

• Full guide to RPS mind games: /psychology • Complete RPS strategy: /strategy • RPS rules: /rules Want to play a round of Rock Paper Scissors right now? → /